War And Peace In World Trade

     Here at FlyingTypers we wanted to reflect on what is happening to our world of services and logistics in this period. So let us start by noting that in January 2026 the word ‘peace’ has been named Oxford Children’s word of the year 2025. As we know this happened while bombs were falling in many places and more bombs were about to fall in other places where so many children were about to be killed. One could argue this is not a smart way of starting an article, probably others could argue that this start is just the understatement of an uglier truth.  
     A number of Europeans, and I am told, Americans have surely not been enjoying peaceful evenings in the last few days. An American friend told me that “there is a general malaise and people are down about everything. The uncertainty of everything and the illogical way in which things are happening is putting a pall on life.” I thought this could also apply to many of us in Europe and the feeling is similar, if not identical. One could contend that thousands of other people in the world, unlike these two groups among others, have been obliged to deal with direct bombardments and/or other kinds of warfare, with casualties.
     We all know what we are talking about: war has erupted in the Middle East in a period when peace was the word, very frequently heard in public.  This is what AI tells us if you ask to compare its usage in year 2025 as compared to year 2024: “In 2025, the word peace has seen a significant increase in public and cultural prominence compared to 2024, shifting from a general aspiration to an urgent global call.” You can even argue that peace has quickly become just a dream for many people, perhaps in contrast with the public promises we continuously receive. Indeed, we live in a complicated and troubled period: what does this mean to us in transport?
International trade and logistics at its service thrive when peace exists, not when it is hastily and vaguely promised.  I did some cherry-picking about this issue on the web and, needless to say, I got involved with a jumble of issues regarding infrastructure, threats, shortages, blockades, embargoes, damages, etc.  
     In Long Beach, at TPM26, Jeremy Nixon presented himself “with the awareness of someone who is about to close a chapter. A manager who has lived through mergers, crises, and ‘black swan’ events, he now finds himself commenting on another systemic shock: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 'We are on the third day of a major regional conflict involving ten countries; there are 750 ships blocked, unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz: 350 within the Gulf and 350 arriving, of which about 100 are container ships. This means that approximately 10% of the global container fleet is affected.’ He said." That is quite a statement!
     These numbers give a measure of the magnitude of the event, even though they could even sound insufficient, as they are more than a couple days’ old. The statement suggested that we are "in the worst-case scenario. We were thinking of a few quick strikes and that was it, but instead we're in the middle of a regional conflict." Whether this is an early statement or a foretelling intuition, we shall find out as we get further along in this difficult year of the Fire Horse.
     In Italy we have seen fuel prices and gas prices increase by some 20% in a couple of days. I am now writing from Switzerland and, as usual, everything here takes a more prudent approach; the prices are high, but not much higher than a couple of months ago… which makes me think that unrest nourishes speculation and speculation boosts inflation, in particular in markets that are more inclined to dramatizing. Inflation in Switzerland is relatively small compared to other areas of the world.   
     Sticking to transportation, many carriers, if not all, had to halt all bookings to the Middle East. The airport of Dubai is now closed. This is not like closing the airport of my hometown, Turin… The impact of Dubai in international aviation is huge.
     The impact on freight rates and on the fluidity of trade is inevitable. We read that “today, the global fleet is worth 33 million TEUs, and almost 10% is stuck waiting for docking. Fifteen years ago, docking upon arrival was the norm, with 1-2% attrition. Today, we're at 10%.”
     In this chaotic situation repercussions and action-reaction disruptions will be inevitable, supposing the public will continue fuelling international trade, despite the gloomy picture. If all of a sudden customers decide to sit and watch instead of buying, we are in for a real nightmare in international trade.
     If we use the internet in AI mode, this is what we get: “As of March 2026, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East has triggered a profound and immediate crisis in international logistics, characterised by the near-total suspension of major maritime and aviation corridors. 
     Maritime Logistics, closure of global chokepoints . . . The conflict has effectively shut down the two most critical waterways for East-West trade: 

• Strait of Hormuz closure: following military strikes in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil and significant container traffic passes—is effectively closed to commercial shipping.”

     We read on FreightWaves.com that, “as of March 2026, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company has announced an $800 USD per container surcharge (End of Voyage Fee) for all cargo destined for the Gulf region.” This is a very recent update (March 4, 2026) in ‘response to security risks in the region’, was the given reason for the decision.
     It has to be noted that the information obtained on the web immediately after the eruption of the ME events was more abundant and more qualified (at least in my personal appreciation) than what you can get on the same pages today (March 7th); so this was three days ago’ information: “The escalating conflict in the Middle East has reached a critical tipping point in early 2026, triggering a ‘state of emergency’ for global logistics, following coordinated military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, the simultaneous disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has upended international trade corridors. The conflict has effectively paralyzed two of the world's most vital maritime arteries: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Major carriers including Maersk, MSC, HMM and CMA CGM have suspended transits through these corridors.”
“Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by approximately 70%” [information dated March 7th].
      There was abundant information about the consequences: “Cape of Good Hope diversions: Roughly 170 container ships have been rerouted around Africa, adding 10–15 days to Asia-Europe voyages and increasing fuel consumption by roughly 40%. Port closures: operations at major hubs like Jebel Ali in Dubai were temporarily suspended following aerial interceptions and fires. Air Freight paralysis: air cargo is facing its most significant disruption since the COVID-19 pandemic. Airspace closures: extensive ‘no-fly zones’ over Iran and Iraq have forced carriers to reroute, removing an estimated 18% of global air freight capacity in a single week. Hub neutralization: major transhipment hubs in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have been operationally neutralized, with over 21,000 flights cancelled in the first few days of March 2026. Rate spikes: shippers are bracing for sharp increases in air freight spot rates as capacity collapses on Asia-Middle East-Europe corridors. Economic and Supply Chain fallout: the ‘belligerent situation’ is driving immediate cost pressures across all sectors.”
     I asked AI to explore specific alternative trade routes, developed to bypass these regional chokepoints. Some answers were matter of course and others were less predictable: [Information dated March 2nd 2026] “The proposed 950-kilometre "Salman Canal," intended to connect the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden/Red Sea, has resurfaced as a strategic, albeit speculative, project to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The project aims to secure oil exports against Iranian disruptions, with estimates suggesting a $80–$100 billion cost to build a 150m wide, 25m deep waterway.” As it happens AI may often be soundly right, in particular if one can live eternally and forget about the concept of time, but... This is not an alternative for tomorrow, period.  
     These are other suggested alternatives, as I considered more practicable (source: Scan Global Logistics):
     1.   Alternative Maritime Routes
     •   Cape of Good Hope Diversion: The most significant alternative to the Suez Canal is re-routing vessels around the southern tip of Africa. While this adds roughly 10–18 days to transit times and increases costs due to higher fuel consumption, it allows shippers to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
     •    Alternative Transhipment Hubs: Instead of using high-risk, direct routes, carriers are utilizing hubs like Salalah or Sohar in Oman, or Colombo in Sri Lanka, for cargo transfers.
     •    Alternative Gulf Entry Points: For cargo destined for the UAE or Saudi Arabia, shippers are bypassing high-risk areas by routing through ports like Khorfakkan (UAE), or Jeddah and King Abdullah Port (Saudi Arabia). 

     2.   Multi-Modal and Land Corridors 
     •    Land Bridges (Trucking/Rail): road and rail transport from hubs in the UAE and Oman are being used to move goods to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
     •    The "Middle Corridor": the Trans-Caspian route connecting China to Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus is being increasingly considered as a secure alternative to sea routes. 
      Over and above these suggestions, FIATA published a recent document which is aimed at providing guidance to its constituency of practicing freight forwarders and LSP’s.
     When AI is dealing with structural and operational shifts again we are building a house that perhaps will be good for our children’s children: 

• Diversification of Suppliers: companies are reducing reliance on single routes or suppliers in conflict zones by sourcing goods from other regions.
• Building Inventory Buffers: to combat longer shipping times caused by detours, firms are increasing inventory levels (safety stocks) closer to final markets.
• Increased Use of Local Partners: relying on local logistics providers who have real-time intelligence on which ports remain operational and which corridors are safe.
• Utilizing Technology: employing AI-powered monitoring tools for real-time visibility and risk management to identify threats before they impact shipments. 

     The World Economic Forum published a lot of material on this particular issue; our expert readers are best placed to judge whether this is contributing to cast light, or rather a shadow on the landscape we are contemplating: “As of March 2026, the Middle East security situation has escalated, significantly impacting the global economy, primarily through energy markets and shipping routes. The escalation, driven by US-Israel actions against Iran, has resulted in immediate disruptions that the World Economic Forum (WEF) and other analysts highlight as key global risks.”
     More information can be downloaded through AI, if we look at aviation and air cargo in particular, which are interesting areas for our readers. “The air cargo sector is currently experiencing a historic capacity shock, with an estimated 18% of global air freight capacity removed from the market, early in March 2026. This disruption stems from the strategic paralysis of the Gulf's ‘mega-hubs’ and widespread airspace closures. 
     Collapse of Global Transit Hubs: the triad Dubai (DXB/DWC), Doha (DOH), and Abu Dhabi (AUH), which typically handle nearly 30% of global air cargo, have faced unprecedented operational suspensions. Emirates and Qatar Airways suspended all commercial and freighter services in early March due to safety concerns, removing roughly 22,000 tonnes of daily capacity from the global network.
     Booking Freezes: for example, major forwarders like DSV, as well as Lufthansa Cargo have implemented temporary booking stops for destinations including Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, and Dubai. Route rerouting and payload penalties: airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and the UAE is largely restricted, forcing a radical reconfiguration of Asia-Europe flight paths. 
     Technical stops: freighters are being rerouted to alternative hubs in Central Asia or Turkije for refuelling. These longer journeys increase fuel burn and often require payload reductions (carrying less cargo to carry more fuel).      Transit delays: even for flights that are not cancelled, shippers are seeing 7–10 day backlogs as regional networks struggle with aircraft and crew displacement. Drastic rate increases and surcharges: the tightening of capacity and rising operational risks have triggered immediate price spikes, with war risk and emergency surcharges. Sector-specific vulnerabilities: perishables and pharma, the disruption to cold chain logistics in the Middle East is particularly acute, as in high-tech electronics. European manufacturers are facing assembly halts as critical components from the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia are stranded by the hub shutdowns.” 
     At that point AI asked me whether I wanted to see a comparison of current spot rates for air freight versus ocean freight on the Shanghai-to-Rotterdam corridor. I thought it was showing considerable proactivity in an investigation that was starting to take its own course . . . Well, AI was also warning me that the proposed results could contain mistakes. I regard this as universal truth that we should always keep in mind, in particular today.
     Here is what I received on my screen and most of our readers are perfectly placed to judge whether the information received is correct: “Shanghai-to-Rotterdam corridor is currently experiencing extreme pricing volatility. As of March 2026, the cost gap between air and ocean freight is narrowing, as maritime diversions around the Cape of Good Hope increase sea freight expenses, while air capacity remains severely constrained. 

Current Spot Rate Comparison (March 2026)

Key Pricing Drivers

• Air-to-Sea price ratio: historically, air freight is 12–16 times more expensive than sea freight. However, with current emergency ocean surcharges reaching up to $4,000 per FEU, the effective cost of sea transport has risen, making air cargo a more viable "emergency" option for high-value goods.
• The "Cape Penalty": ocean voyages now take 10–15 days longer than the Suez route. For shippers of time-sensitive electronics or fashion, the $6.90/kg air rate is increasingly viewed as a necessary premium to avoid a 45-day sea transit.
• Capacity crunch: air freight rates are under upward pressure as major Gulf hubs like Dubai and Doha face operational suspensions, forcing cargo onto fewer available flights and driving up spot market bids.” 

     AI then asked me whether I “would like to analyze how these rate hikes are specifically impacting just-in-time manufacturing sectors in Europe?” I decided to leave it at that. My mind went back to those days in 1973 when all of a sudden we suffered the first (to my memory) restrictions in using private cars, because of the penury of fuel caused by the war in the Middle East: the then famous, at least in Italy and in Europe, “domeniche a piedi” i.e. Sundays on foot. That is over fifty years ago. I remember I was thinking how could the whole world get itself tangled in such a situation, inevitably tied to the destiny of petroleum, without thinking of alternatives. It was clear to me that alternatives would come at a price, but why not if they could preserve our freedom and independence. My train of thoughts did not travel very far. Over fifty years later, it seems to me we have not moved much from that point.
Marco Sorgetti

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