Police escort an injured man after he attacked protesters outside Prince Edward station in Hong Kong on Friday, Sept. 6, 2019. On Friday, ratings agency Fitch cut Hong Kong's credit rating and warned that conflict with anti-government protesters was hurting the image of its business climate.

     Usually the first of the month trots out the numbers from the past weeks with prediction of various scenarios in play, as the year moves forward.
     August shall be remembered by many as the month Beijing weaponized those huge and ongoing Hong Kong protests that a few Cathay Pacific Airlines employees had the temerity to join.
     Opinion of Bloomberg News’ Dave Fickling August 12 put this issue and what it could mean to Cathay squarely into the bullseye:
     “The worst-case scenario, of an airline that’s forced to police the political views of its own workforce in order to maintain the open skies it needs to operate, would be a horrendous one for Cathay,” Mr. Fickling writes.
     “Driving a wedge between management and staff inclined to support Hong Kong’s aspirations for greater freedom, and between the airline and customers who retain loyalty to it as an icon of the territory’s unique status, could quickly erase the gains from nearly four years of turning around the business.
     “Waiting in the wings in that event is the risk that the long-rumored takeover by Cathay’s second-largest shareholder, Air China Ltd., could finally come to fruition.
     “The largest shareholder, Swire Pacific Ltd., would likely have to reduce or sell its 45% holding to get Air China’s 30% stake into a majority – but for all that Cathay is a prestigious jewel in the crown for ultimate shareholder John Swire & Sons Ltd., it represents only 13% or so of total revenue.
     “There’d be no sense in the Swire’s sacrificing their broader relations with China for the sake of the airline,” Bloomberg said.

Some IATA Numbers

     Well here is what we have from IATA for July, but we wonder why in this day and age IATA cannot release these numbers faster.
     IATA said freight ton kilometers (FTKs), worldwide decreased by 3.2% year-over-year in July.
     For the first seven months of 2019, freight tonnage dipped 3.5%. Capacity climbed 2.6% in July and has averaged 2.3% so far this year, according to IATA Load factors were minus 2.7% and 3.2 percentage points on average this year.
     IATA said, usual suspects in all of this negative news, (in case you had not noticed), includes the continuing U.S. /China trade dust up.
     But FTKS during July also dipped across routes to and from Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.
     IATA said that cargo FTKs of airlines in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and North America fell 5.5%, 4.9% and 2.1% respectively.
     Meanwhile, European airlines delivered a 2.0% dip in demand versus 4.2% increase in capacity with about the same numbers average so far in 2019.
     Latin America a bright spot, grew by 3.0% in July while squeaking out a 1.3% uptick in numbers so far this year through July.
     Africa, where FIATA the world organization of air freight forwarders is holding its Annual World Congress October 1-5 in Cape Town, defied all odds and recorded its fifth straight month of increases all around with air cargo demand spiking upward a whopping 10.9% in July, as capacity also grew in double digits to 17.0% growth.
     Africa demand through the first seven of 2019 is up 4.9% on the wings of a 13.6%, capacity bump, IATA said.

Go To Cathy Behind The Numbers

     What do these latest numbers mean?
     To find out we go to Cathy Roberson who says right away and emphatically:
     “I agree with IATA's assessment that the lower air freight demand can be attributed to the trade war.
     “As long as that continues, air freight demand will remain negative.
     “Perhaps one optimistic note is that the FTK decline, 3.2%, is the lowest Y0Y decline since March of this year.
     “Still no need to celebrate though, it's still not good.

Focus On 2020

     “I do not see,” ‘Go To Cathy’ exclaims, “nor anticipate, a recovery in aircargo until later into 2020 at the earliest, but even then, that may be too optimistic.
     “Global manufacturing is declining and there are signs of a possible recession in various countries.

Brighter & Livelier

     “With all that being said, Africa and Latin America were bright spots in IATA's July reading.
     “African airlines seem to be benefitting from Asian trade while Latin America is benefitting from an ever so slightly improving Brazil.
     “Word of caution for Latin America though, it is a highly volatile market and current economic conditions in Argentina could negatively impact the air market at any time.

The Hong Kong Saga

     “From what I understand, cargo is moving in and out of the airport ok but because of the demonstrations which have resulted in blocked traffic and closure of the airport for a few days, volumes will likely be down in double-digits for August.
     “Shippers may be wise to have back-up plans in terms of alternative airports in the area until the situation has been resolved.”
Geoffrey

Cathy Morrow Roberson is president of Logistics Trends & Insights, a market research firm focused on global supply chains. Cathy can be reached by email: croberson@LogisticsTI.com as well as on social media, Twitter @cmroberson06 and @LogisticsTI and the Logistics Trends & Insights LLC's LinkedIn page.

At the door of the Buffalo Airways DC-3 is Skye Mandigo-Stoba with her Dad Ian and sister, Morgaine.

      After beating Hodgkin's Lymphoma, San Francisco teenager Skye Mandigo-Stoba got to wish for anything in the world.
     Naturally, it was a toss-up between having lunch with Beyonce or seeing Buffalo Airways Cargo World War II DC-3 cargo aircraft.
     Yellowknife, Canada-based Buffalo Airways operates a fleet of World War II-era aircraft that are the aerial lifeline to a number of northern Canadian villages, carrying cargo shipments under government contract. Buffalo Airways has been featured on History Television's Ice Pilots NWT for several seasons.
     Skye and her father, Ian are big fans of that series, so Make-A-Wish and Buffalo Airways delivered something wonderful to this special teenager big time.

Life Is Not A Hospital Alone

     “It means a lot,” Skye said. “It was so hard just sort of going through the repetitive cycle of doing nothing, being in the hospital, being home, doing nothing.
     “It was fun to plan a wish and have something to look forward to,” she said simply.

Skye Flying High Due North

     Skye flew up to Yellowknife to see the DC-3 aircraft with her dad and sister.
     “It's not just the trip or the event,” said Skye’s dad, Ian Stoba.
     “It's all the time before that, where it gave us something to think about, to talk about.
     “It was really rough,” Dad Ian declared.
     “I brought my sister because she likes to dabble in some science. She's a physicist,” Skye revealed.

Skye Mandigo-Stoba, 15, disembarked from Buffalo Airways' Norseman 5 bush plane after a flight around Yellowknife Bay, organized by the Make-A-Wish Foundation. Skye had never been in a float plane before. Pictured is Skye Mandigo-Stoba with her sister, Morgaine, far left, after an aerial tour of Yellowknife with Buffalo's President Joe McBryan and Buffalo Airways’ Emily Chambers.

The Passion

     Skye Mandigo-Stoba proclaims she is “not a huge flier” but planes are her passion.
     Buffalo Airways President Joe McBryan, (also known as ‘Buffalo Joe’) a crusty old- school, ex-bush-pilot who, in his 70s is still very much a heroic ‘captain of the clouds’.
     Joe operates this cargo airline with a faithful family and an extended team of some top notch, but down on the ground experts.
     Here we discover a working fleet of the aforementioned DC-3s and also an interesting mix of aircraft, including an ex- Lufthansa C46 double bubble cargo bird built by Curtiss aircraft in Buffalo, New York, and some L-88 turbo prop Elektras beating their way skyward daily, delivering the goods, putting out forest fires and otherwise proving history is alive and well.
     Joe, who cannot hide a true hero’s heart of gold, took the Stoba clan for a spin in a Canadian-built Norseman 5 WW II-era aircraft, before a tour of the Buffalo hangar and delivered Skye onto a DC-3 aircraft.
     “Any DC-3 is really great,” Ms. Mandigo-Stoba enthused.
     “I love really any reciprocating piston-engine plane,” she said.
     “There's a lot of history behind them,” Skye insisted.
     “They're big powerful planes and I just love ’em.
     “Functioning World War II aircraft flying around at work every day are also tough to find,” she insists, in a true understatement.
     “You can really only see them in a museum,” Skye Mandigo-Stoba smiled.

Eyes On The Prize

     Looking ahead, Skye wants to pursue her own career in science and promote renewable technology in the airline industry.
     “I'm really interested in bringing renewable fuels into the aviation community, specifically working with hydrogen and bringing that technology to the commercial airlines,” she said.

Courage Enough For All Of Us

     Skye Mandigo-Stoba’s life as usual after cancer is now more typical of a teenager, if you can count this effervescent, brave young lady as anything but unusual.
     "I’ll finish high school, go to university … then I want to either work at Boeing or become some sort of engineer with planes,” she said.
     More power to her.
Emelie Peacock, Cabin Radio. Edited by Geoffrey Arend

     If you like old airplanes run, don’t walk to YouTube and look up Mikey McBryan and watch how this enterprising young man pulled a derelict C-47 (DC-3) back from the brink in about 100 days and had it air-worthy and airborne for the D-Day celebrations this past June 6th.
     Poke around a bit more and discover Mikey is at it again, this time having his ‘Plane Savers’ initiative work its wonders on a replica tri-wing Fokker aircraft made famous during WWI by Baron Manfred Von Richthofen, the Red Baron leader of the famed WWI German aerial fighting force, The Flying Circus.

Too Cool For School

     The cool thing about ‘Plane Savers’ is that Mikey gets it about the time people have to watch this sort of program and keeps his episodes to about 12 to 17 minutes or less.
     So take a pause in your day’s occupation and watch these dedicated folks bring back a vintage DC-3 and take people for joy rides aboard a back to the future history living aircraft.

Ice Pilots

     All of this comes out of a wonderful multi-year series that at this point has run on television worldwide titled ‘Ice Pilots’.
     But Mikey, who grew in TV production, watching and starring in ‘Ice Pilots’ learned his lessons well as he caresses the supple and elegant DC-3s and other aircraft in the Buffalo fleet, with his selfie cameras and Go Pros in every shot of his self-produced new series ‘Plane Savers’ on Youtube.

Must See TV A Couple Clicks Away

     It is just wonderful, raw, direct, off the shoulder straight to your heart television.
Maybe the best thing in this reality series, in all its forms, are the people.

Arnie & Chuck

     ‘Ice pilots’, in addition to Buffalo Joe, Mikey and Uncle Rod McBryan and a squad of eager wanna be pilots who work the cargo ramp, humping and running consignments in subzero temps for a shot at the right seat, also features a true mentor of the aviation arts and a marquee superstar pilot, with the face and smile that could have accelerated global warming, the late great Arnie Schreder (above left).
     Arnie teaching youngsters in the art of piloting a C-46, DC-4 or DC-3 is a beautiful thing to behold.
     There is also a fabulous larger than life mechanical engineer and total curmudgeon named Chuck Adams (above right), an always laughably grumpy guy who can fix any moving part.
     Chuck, it should be mentioned, has made at least one growling cameo appearance aboard ‘Plane Savers’.

Alive & Well In Yellowknife

     We also loved that the ‘Plane Savers’ DC-3 restoration project put some older Buffalo Airways mechanical wizards with an eager group of students from École Nationale d’Aérotechnique (ENA), a world class Canadian teaching experience for the next generation.
     So here was Mikey and company with a total ground up effort, mentoring the next generation with everyone including us, as viewers along the way.

His Gal Friday Gal for All Seasons

     Now the new ‘Plane Savers’ has brought forward Mikey’s partner, the indefatigable Stella Heidorn, pictured here with Mikey.
     Stella, who was also very much part of the earlier D-3 project, is from Germany so I suppose she will keep busy as the new ‘Plane Savers’ continues as Summer 2019 ends, reading aloud instructions on rebuilding a Fokker Tri-plane from information that remains even today mostly in German.
     Hooray for the eager bunch in Yellowknife, bringing back yet another great aircraft.
     Good for us as well for the opportunity to be an eyewitness to this gloriously spirited group of people, who in addition to being a drop-dead, gorgeous unique air cargo resource serving northern Canada, also celebrate and lift the life experience to another level.
Geoffrey