Although the announcement is yet to made, Lionel Van der Walt, longtime house employee of IATA, has been named president of Cargo Network Services (CNS), and appears to have been handed a hot potato as the revolving door continues spinning at CNS.
     Van der Walt is the third CNS President in the past five years, but he does differ from previous CNS Presidents—namely Jones, Vertannes, (acting) Vorwerk, Tubbesing, and Calabrese—in that he assumes command of an organization with a stated goal of extending the airline/forwarder partnership with what appears to be no air cargo experience.
     A document obtained by FlyingTypers stated:
     “Lionel brings a wealth of knowledge and leadership experience to the team, including over twenty years of aviation experience, including many years in various roles at South African Express Airways, South African Airways, and being licensed as an Air Traffic Controller.
     “Since joining IATA in 2005, Lionel has held multiple positions in South Africa, Spain, and the United States.
     “Most recently, Lionel was the Caribbean Area Manager, where he delivered excellent results by partnering with our member airlines and industry stakeholders, leading an outstanding team to drive innovation, safety and commercial revenues across the Caribbean region.”

   Japanese and Turkish people pose for a photo in front of a special Turkish Airlines plane named “Kushimoto,” which arrived in Tokyo at Narita Airport Monday Nov. 30, 2015. The arrival marked the release of a movie titled Ertugšrul 1890, recognizing the long-standing historic friendship between Turkey and Japan.
   The airplane was branded to be reminiscent of an earlier aircraft utilized to evacuate Japanese nationals from Tehran during the Iran-Iraq War in 1985.
   Significantly, Kushimoto is a Japanese coastal town where an Ottoman frigate sank in a typhoon in 1890.
   Of the 587 people aboard the ship, 69 survived due to the rescue efforts of local people.

     Did November see the return of a traditional peak season, or simply a minor bump before a return to bearish normality? At this stage the jury is out, but the smart money is on the latter.
     Congestion at major export hubs in Asia was evident through the first few weeks of the month, suggesting that new electronics product launches and holiday season demand finally gave air freight operators something to cheer. But at this stage, exactly how this surge translated into volumes and yields is unclear—November data will not be available until the middle of the month.
     What is certain is that September and October both disappointed. And the outlook for December and early 2016 is, according to most analysts, challenging.
     Drewry, for example, predicted that air freight pricing had strengthened through November as the end-of-year peak season boosted short-term demand. However, the analyst predicts that pricing will again subside in December.
     Speaking to FlyingTypers in the final week of November, Brian Bourke, (left) VP Marketing at SEKO Logistics, said “there is no ‘hot’ demand right now, but we are actually seeing some demand still to Europe, but this should only last another week.”
     He said Intra Asia traffic remained strong, but said the congestion seen in some airports during the early weeks of November had been worked through. “We are not seeing any more congestion as peak season is really now over,” he added. “We are seeing some delays at airports in Northern China like Tianjin and South Korea due to heavy snow.
     “The peak season for Asia-U.S. Airfreight really lasted only three weeks, ending last week. The market has mostly returned to normal now.”
     Bourke’s assessment that this year’s peak was short certainly seems to chime with available data, most of which suggests that the lead-in to November was relatively quiet.
     Drewry’s East-West Air Freight Price Index rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, climbing 2.9 points to a reading of 102.0 [May 2012 = 100]. However, although this was the highest of the year, it was still some 13.5 points adrift of the same month last year. According to Drewry Sea & Air Shipper Insight, this performance was “indicative of continuing underlying weakness in the market.”
     Airports Council International found that air freight was also weak through September due to “a slowdown across Asian export markets and oil producing economies.”
     ACI added: “In September 2015, freight volumes were essentially flat in Asia Pacific +0.5 percent and [they saw a] slight decrease in the Middle East of -3.9 percent.”
     The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines is more prompt with its statistics than many, and it reported that even in October there was little sign of a freight rebound.
     “Demand for air cargo shipments fell slightly in October, on the back of continued weakness in export-import activities in major regional economies, including China, India, and Japan,” said the AAPA.      “Measured in freight tonne kilometre (FTK) terms, air cargo demand edged 0.7 percent lower from the same month last year.”
     Indeed, over the first ten months of 2015, air cargo demand increased just 2.2 percent year-on-year and Andrew Herdman, AAPA Director General, (right) predicted air cargo markets would remain soft “given weak global trade conditions.”
     The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) also offered little cause for optimism. In November it fell for a sixth consecutive month—this time by a sequential 3.4 percent to reach 47.4, which indicates a contracting global trade environment. This was the Index’s second sub-50 reading in a row as well as the lowest reading since November 2012.
     Stifel, contrary to most other forecasters, also reported that overall air freight volumes fell modestly in November. “Current tonnage growth remains negative in three out of the four largest Europe-based trade lanes,” said the analyst. “Only Europe-U.S. volumes are growing due, in our opinion, largely to relative U.S. dollar strength.”
     The analyst was also less than positive for the months ahead. “The six-month outlook for airfreight anticipates slow or sideways growth in three out of four measured lanes,” said Stifel.
     “However, on the Europe-Asia route, results suggest that volumes will remain challenged for at least the next couple of quarters.”
     When the stats for November are revealed, it seems they are most likely to reveal only a brief peak season occurred in 2015, punctuating rather desolate demand in autumn and December. Expect more of the same into 2016.
SkyKing

     “Thanks to the Lufthansa/ANA Cargo Joint Venture, we can connect our European network with direct connections to Japan and the continental de-feeder flights of ANA,” said Carsten Wirths, Area Manager Europe and Africa for Lufthansa Cargo, as the JV expands services this month to include Fukuoka on the main island Kyushu in southern Japan, and upcoming to Sapporo on the North Island.
More: www.lufthansa-cargo.com

     Apart from the leading Middle East cargo giants, not many carriers have been able to post the sort of freight growth rates SriLankan Airlines has managed in recent years. Mr. Chamara Ranasinghe, Head of Cargo, told FlyingTypers that despite the competitive pressures felt both from rival airlines and alternative shipment modes, UL managed to increase its volumes at an average of 5 percent year on year over the last five years.
     From its “Hub In The Ocean,” Columbo, and elsewhere, SriLankan Cargo uplifted 101,878 tons in FY2014-15, an 8 percent increase over the previous year. UL’s cargo operations are now a major part of the airline’s financial health, contributing approximately 12 percent of the airline’s total network revenue annually and providing a net contribution of USD$50m to the SriLankan Airlines Group in FY2014-15.
     In FY2014-15, growth was evident mainly on the Indian sector, into Middle East, and Ex China. “With the passenger and cargo demand to and from China, we will be increasing frequency into CAN with an additional 3 flights a week from November 2015,” said Ranasinghe.
     He also said there had been an increase more recently in exports originating in Colombo and destined for European sectors and the Middle East. “Bangalore, Chennai, and Mumbai are major markets in India as well,” he said. “Main export commodities ex-CMB are the fruits and vegetables movements—perishables—into the Middle East, and chilled fish and garments into Europe. With the introduction of the A330-300 aircrafts, SriLankan has gradually overcome the capacity constraints into CMB.”
     SriLankan Cargo primarily utilizes the bellyhold capacity available through UL’s network, which spans 99 destinations in 47 countries. The UL fleet currently totals 20 Airbus aircraft—one A340, seven A330-200s, four A330-300s, six A320s, and two A321—with one additional A330-300 set to join the fleet by mid-November, the latter addition part of an ongoing restructuring process.
     “With the ongoing re-fleeting process, the A340s will be completely replaced with the new A330-300 aircrafts and plans are set for the inclusion of A350 aircraft,” said Ranasinghe. “In addition to this, SriLankan operates a MD82 freighter on a lease basis with an average payload of 19,000 kgs per flight. The freighter operations are mainly to India, largely to supplement the A320 line operation.
     “SriLankan cargo also recently commenced twice-weekly freighter operations to DAC via LHE.”
     UL has also been widening its network by signing more Special Prorate Agreements with partner airlines in Africa, Israel, Vietnam, and Australia. Ranasinghe said UL was now looking for options to team up with major airlines on a joint venture commercial operation basis to carry cargo to Europe and beyond.
     However, Ranasinghe warned that despite recent heady growth in freight volumes, the current “alarming” trend of poor growth in FTKs in relation to available capacity in leading markets had prompted SriLankan to take “a volume-based approach in order to maximize belly capacity and freighter operations, which have been led through a significant compromise from preferred yields.”
     He added: “The recent IATA reports published indicated that airlines will tend to see yield weaknesses primarily with the lower oil prices and stronger capacity growth. IATA further went on to state that while the air freight industry will grow by 5.5 percent, yields are set to fall by 7 percent due to capacity increases of 6.2 percent, a rise of 0.8 percent in comparison to last year.
     “As a result, SriLankan, too, has faced a decline in yields in this financial year in several key markets, including the base station Colombo.”
     Ranasinghe was, however, optimistic that there would be an upsurge in future demand into markets such as the Middle East and Maldives, which were already seeing increasing demand for perishables. “Further, developing markets such as Chennai, Bangalore, and Dhaka are considered key markets for the future,” he added.
SkyKing

     Move over, Boeing & Airbus. Here comes the ARJ21 jet at the airport in Chengdu in southwest China's Sichuan province on November 29, 2015.
     AR121 is the first ARJ, a regional jet made by Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC). The 90-seat aircraft has been certified by China's civil aviation regulators, but not by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.