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   Vol. 13 No. 71   Thursday August 21, 2014

 

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Ocean Biz Moving Up Toward Fall

Volumes are picking up on the East-West container shipping trades and lines are planning major new General Rate Increases to take advantage of the peak shipping season, despite most previous GRIs doing little more than giving spot rates a temporary nudge upwards.
     But analysts are now optimistic that container shipping supply and demand is getting closer to equilibrium which could see a more long-term correction in rates over the next two years.
     On the key Asia-Europe trade, the recipient of global fleet additions in the 13,000 TEU+ capacity class in recent years, lines are continuing their quest to use regular GRIs to force up rates.
     According to the latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), GRIs introduced by most lines at the start of the month initially found some traction in the form of rate hikes.
     But these gains were subsequently lost with indecent haste as the month wore on and individual lines chased volumes with capacity additions and low rate offers.
     As of mid-August, spot rates were hovering around $1,200 per TEU, some 10% percent lower than a year earlier.
     The rates drop prompted the normal response from lines – the announcement of further GRI and rate restoration programs. OOCL, for example, will introduce a rate restoration levy on Asia-Europe services of US$675 per TEU starting September 1.
     The Trans-Pacific trade from Asia to the U.S. has a somewhat different dynamic due to fears of union action at West Coast ports by longshoremen.
     As FlyingTypers went to press, West Coast employers represented by the Pacific Maritime Association were still in negotiations over a new labor contract with the powerful International Longshore and Warehouse Union.
     The previous contract expired on July 1 but, expecting problems, shippers have been planning far ahead and many brought forward shipments this year ushering in an early peak season.
     The upshot of this is expected to result, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, in imports to the U.S. setting a new record in August of 1.54 million TEU, up from the previous record set in July at an estimated 1.53 million boxes.
Jonathan Gold     “The negotiations appear to be going well, but each week that goes by makes the situation more critical as the holiday season approaches,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
     “Retailers are making sure they are stocked up so shoppers won’t be affected regardless of what happens at the ports.”
     According to SCFI, spot rates from Shanghai to the U.S. west coast were running at around 2,100 per FEU in mid-August, up from $1,941 a year earlier. Even so, lines still plan further ‘rate restoration’ programs.
     After member container shipping lines in the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement added a GRI of at least $600 per FEU on August 1, the TSA has now recommended a further GRI of at least $600 per FEU to be implemented at the start of September to help carriers maintain “adequate service levels over time.”
     But while lines and their customers tussle over spot rates, there now appears a discernible, fundamental shift in the container slot supply-demand balance. Whisper it quietly, but aided by improving demand for Asian products from Europe and the U.S., and more responsible capacity management, the outlook is finally starting to look better for lines, both in the near and medium-term.
     Although excess capacity is still capping Asia-Europe rates, a number of lines including OOCL and Maersk saw improved profits and volumes in the second quarter, with bottom lines boosted by more efficient ships and resultant improved bunker usage efficiency.
     There is more good news for lines in most analyst’s forecasts on supply and demand. Although there is a backlog of excess capacity for lines to work through, Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst at Bimco, believes demand-side growth is outstripping supply-side growth now, improving the fundamental balance of the market. “This difference is 1-2% percent. Not a landslide change from one day to the next, but a most welcome move in the right direction,” he said.
     Research by Drewry Shipping Consultants found that the number of containerships afloat decreased in the first half of 2014 and could fall over the full year—for the first time in over 20 years!
     “Although the total TEU nominal capacity of the global fleet continues to increase by about 6% percent a year, this growth in capacity now comes solely from the increase in average ship size, not from having more ships,” said the analyst.
     “Not only are ships getting bigger—not unexpected—but also both the absolute number and the relative market share of smaller ships are falling.”
     Clarksons expects volumes to increase globally by 6% in 2014 and 6.7% percent in 2015 compared to a slot capacity increase of 4.8% percent this year when supply growth has been limited by “elevated levels of scrapping.”
     And Braemar ACM Shipbroking said high demolition levels had restrained newbuilding orders so far in 2014. Along with shrewd fleet management, this will mean fleet growth in 2016 of only 3% percent given that orders placed now will only be delivered in 2017.
     With global container demand expected to increase by 18% percent through to 2016, a figure expected to be roughly matched by supply side expansion of slot capacity, the market, from a liner perspective at least, is starting to look a lot more promising.
SkyKing

Badge This Ocean Biz   That long and winding road of too much capacity chasing consignments may be coming into balance.
   Demand drives everything including some positive news at present and in the future regarding ocean shipping lanes.
   In the meantime imports into the U.S. will set a new TEU record for August.

 

LAN Recycles Easter

      Air cargo, always in search of new commodities, may have found a new one as LAN Cargo said that it has signed an agreement to remove more than 24 tons of cardboard per month from Easter Island.
      LAN Cargo is currently transporting bundles of compacted cardboard to Santiago from Easter Island for recycling and reuse.
      Home of the Moai Statues of the Rapa Nui, Easter Island is located 2,200 miles off the coast of Chile. It is considered one of the most remote inhabited locations in the world.
      But reality has come knocking at the door of this treeless landscape, which is considered a sacred island of the world.

Easter Island
   Immoveable. Nearly 900 giant statues Easter Islanders called “Moai” punctuate Easter Island's southeastern coast.
   On average the Moai stand 13 feet tall and weigh 14 tons each, and it is believed they were carved from volcanic ash between 1250 and 1500 CE.

      It turns out that the Easter Island dumps are full, as recycling came late to that part of the world. The waste has outgrown available places to put it.
Luis Castellani      Luis Castellani, Domestic Cargo business manager of LAN Cargo, which has been the sole service provider to Easter Island for 47 years, puts it this way:
      “With this operation, LAN materializes its constant concern for the most isolated areas of our country, performing tasks in close collaboration and coordination with local authorities.
      “To date, we have shipped more than 95 tons of cardboard from Easter Island to Santiago
      “We expect to finish out 2014 having transported 350 metric tons of cardboard!
      “We are very committed to the community of Easter Island and hope that with this task we can help preserve the environment and contribute to improving the quality of life of its inhabitants,” Mr. Castellani said.
Geoffrey/Flossie


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   Turkish Cargo doubles down on flights from Istanbul to Astana—capital city of Kazakhstan—adding a freighter from once to twice weekly starting August 20.
Astana, located in the central and very flat steppe region on the Ishim River, became the capital in 1997 and has grown by leaps and bounds ever since.
Halit Anlatan    Turkish is also adding a frequency to its twice-weekly Istanbul--–Tehran cargo flights from 2 to 3 flights per week starting August 29, 2014.
   Halit Anlatan, Turkish Cargo vice president of sales and marketing, is mulling his next moves from a corner office upstairs inside the big Turkish Airlines Building at Ataturk International Airport.
   “We feel our expansion to new and underserved destinations is driving growth as we continue to invest in our Istanbul hub, which is situated at the crossroads of Europe, Middle East, Africa, and former CIS countries.
   “There is much potential for air cargo and many niche markets within these areas for us,” he added.
   “Great airlines must have great networks, so building continues with new connections being added all the time,” Halit insists.
   “Our freighters offer great lift and flexibility to drive activities, including supporting service agreements, vast road feeder services, and all manner of shipper options via Gateway Istanbul,” Mr. Anlatan said.

Lagosthansa Freighters September

Carsten Wirths   “Adding Lagos to our freighter network considerably strengthens our involvement in West Africa,” said Carsten Wirths, vice president Europe & Africa at Lufthansa Cargo, as the carrier readies twice-weekly MD11F flights (Monday and Thursday) starting September 15.
   From Lagos the new freighter will continue on to Johannesburg.
   “The return leg to Frankfurt will include a stopover in Nairobi.
   “Another two weekly flights from Frankfurt to Johannesburg will also stop in Nairobi on the southbound flight,” Carsten Wirths said.


 

 



Chuckles For August 21, 2014

Diane Schoeneich

Frankfurt Am Main continues as number one airport both in terms of passenger and cargo traffic in Germany and is also the second busiest airport in Europe.
     The slogan “Managed by FRAPORT” already suggests that FRA prizes itself for its experience in running airports and airport-related business.
     The present, however, is not without difficulties.


Costs Rising

     For decades the “Flughafen Frankfurt – Main AG,” as it was then called, carried out all functions by themselves and had a de-facto monopoly on handling (only other self handlers permitted by law were German flag carrier Lufthansa and, as a remnant from the post-war Allied Occupation Statute, Pan Am).
     This changed when the process of European integration moved ahead in the late 1990s.
     To be competitive in this new environment, FRAPORT decided to outsource a number of activities—such as cargo, de-icing, and the like—to 100 percent subsidiaries.
     Subsequently, all cargo-related activities were transferred to FCS, FRAPORT Cargo Services GmbH.
     So we wonder how has the FCS scheme worked out?
     FlyingTypers spoke to FCS customers and most commented that while FCS may not be the least costly option, it’s the one delivering a good service. Opinions vary between “reasonable” and “superb,” but indeed there was uniform consent between operator staff that FCS stronghold is their experienced and well-trained workforce that can “get almost anything done.”
     Since competition airside is limited—only one more company offers cargo loading and unloading in FRA and restricts itself to passenger aircraft; even Lufthansa Cargo contracts FRAPORTs ramp services on their home base—the naturally shorter communication channels between FRAPORT and their 100 percent subsidiary FCS make for some efficiency gains.
     Still, price is an important criterion when choosing handling partners, and adapting to the market demands has proven particularly challenging for FCS.
     FCS points out that the margins in the handling business are minuscule and require huge investments in infrastructure. It’s especially the infrastructure provided for by FCS and FRAPORT that attracts the large cargo operators.


Issues Incoming

     Another issue is the payment—invoices (which often amount to several 100K Euros) are often paid with considerable delay or sometimes even rejected because of minimal errors (such as charging FCS-supplied tie down material while the operator’s own supplies were actually used), a measure Ms. Schoeneich called “unfair.”
     FCS has also lost—and written off—a “six-figured Euro amount” on handling charges owed by Air Cargo Germany, which went bust, and left everyone holding the bag.
     It is noteworthy here that talks are underway with IATA so as to enable the handlers to collect their charges from both forwarders and operators by means of the IATA Clearinghouse in the future, something which would simplify billing and guarantee timely payment in most cases.


Rock & A Hard Place

     FCS finds itself between a rock and a hard place in the recent move of FRAPORT to collect airport concessionary charges from all users of the airport premises, a move which has met stiff opposition, especially from the forwarder community.
     Whilst the way the concessionary fees were communicated and the actual amount in question may be debatable, it also seems that the huge infrastructure investments somehow must be paid for, and it stands to reason that such payment should not be levied on airline customers alone.
     Elsewhere FRA is transforming on an almost daily basis with new buildings, roads, and gates, with significant movement also toward change behind the scenes.
     Take the “Cargo Community Project,” which aims at creating network synergies between all operators, authorities, handlers, and forwarders at or near FRA. “Increased exchange of information will cut down costs for data input on various stages, reduce truck waiting and clearance times (something subject to criticism for the last 30 years), smoothen the handling by increased predictability of handling peaks and lows as well as strengthen security,” says Ms. Schoeneich.
     With competitors such as LUG and Celebi onboard there should be sizable benefits for all stakeholders and a major contribution to a further improvement of handling quality. Since the largest chunk in air cargo transit time is made up not by the actual air transport time, but by handling, clearance, and transport to and from the departure and arrival airports, this indeed has potential to become a major improvement.

Badge This FRA Cargo City
   Now, some time after FRAPORT allowed Fraport Cargo Services (FCS) to become a separate unit, some positives and negatives are discussed with FCS and their customers.
   There are issues, such as collecting airport concessionary charges and what to do when stuck with a whopper of unpaid, never-to-be-realized accounts receivables . . . like from an airline gone belly-up, called Air Cargo Germany.
   How important is it to take the lead towards driving more operations transparency between stakeholders doing business at the airport?



SCOPE & Partnerships Building


     FCS and FRAPORT have partnered with Hermes Logistics Technologies to create a state-of-the-art software solution that integrates the present and future needs of cargo handlers. Despite some teething issues in 2005 to 2006, SCOPE, as the system is called, has been proven highly effective and is a major contributor for efficiency gains and handling quality.
     The Dakosy “ZAPP-AIR” MAWB project, in which forwarders such as DHL, K & N, and Panalpina are participating, is another step towards a true e-freight environment.


Moving Forward

     It’s safe to say: FCS is moving ahead, despite—or maybe even because of—the multitude of challenges in a difficult environment.
     While traditional industry and services in the Rhein-Main area are not doing well—Opel, the GM-subsidiary German car manufacturer producing in nearby Ruesselsheim has for years been on the verge of bankruptcy, and banking jobs in “Bankfurt,” as Frankfurt was traditionally called, are also not what they used to be, state-rescued Commerzbank just having shed in excess of 2,500 jobs—FRA has in fact become Germany’s biggest job machine, with 75,000 jobs directly another 45,000 indirectly depending on FRA airport—and not just in close vicinity of the airport.
     Nevertheless, Germany seems to be a country of NIMBYs (Not-In-My-Backyard): Any expansion of the airport is challenged in the courts, crowned by the Leipzig Administrative Courts decision to impose a night curfew on FRA; and Blockupy protests against the “noise terror” are frequent on the airport premises and even the terminal, since these are considered “public” under German law.
     While German courts have ruled that children are no longer a source of “noise” (since their joyful cheers are but natural), almost any kind of infrastructure is challenged in the courts these days.
     But life goes on and nobody thinks the worse of FRAPORT or FCS. Certainly there is no trace of the mixed sentiments of sadness and laughter generated by what is tagged as the greatest boondoggle in history, the airport called BBI, just slightly east of FRA.
     But that’s another story.
Jens


TIACA ACF Ad


Vistara Airlines

   TATA SIA Airlines Ltd. crew members pose with their top officials; from fourth left, Board Directors Swee Wah Mak, Mukund Rajan, Chairman Prasad Menon, and CEO Teik Yeoh, at a press conference to unveil the name and logo of the new airline “Vistara” in New Delhi, India, Monday, August 11, 2014.
   The joint venture between India’s TATA Sons Ltd. and Singapore Airlines Ltd. is expected to start its operations in October 2014.


Czech Airlines

   Czech this out, as OK B737-829, or Aha Praha “Prague Loves You,” still attracting attention on final at Birmingham Airport UK, as that gateway celebrates 75 years (and many happy landings) in 2014.

UAL Sunset Aircraft
   And now for something completely different… on the IAH hardstand at sunrise last Thursday, a United Airlines tail is manipulated via an Instagram filter.
   Carbon footprints one-step at a time. As part of a carbon offset initiative, United Cargo has added a handy calculator that checks the carbon footprint of any flight.
   The opportunity to make a small contribution to various eco-projects works for us.
http://www.unitedcargo.com/


 

If You Missed Any Of The Previous 3 Issues Of FlyingTypers
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FT080714
Vol. 13 No. 68
Hello To The Star Of India
Emirates Flags Chicago
Quotable First Six Of 2014-Part II
High Times
Chuckles For August 5, 2014
FT081114
Vol. 13 No. 69
Delta Versus Ex-Im Bank
Fly Me To The Moon
After Summer 2014 Back To The Future
Chuckles For August 11, 2014
Green IT Blowing In The Wind
Sun & Moon


Publisher-Geoffrey Arend • Managing Editor-Flossie Arend • Associate Publisher/European Bureau Chief-Ted Braun
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