Aviainform
Europe & What's Next
Frankfurt-based air freight analyst Aviainform GmbH
presents the newest “Freight Market Outlook 2010.” It aims
to navigate airlines and agents through the crisis, claims Aviainform’s
managing director, Dirk Steiger. Special attention is paid to the European
markets.
 FT:
Instead of flying, the air freight
industry seems to be crawling through the crisis. In view of the uncertainties
ahead don’t you think it to be quite courageous to offer the participants
a Freight Market Outlook for 2010 at this very situation?
DS: I agree.
The crisis is still ongoing and will last for a while. But because of
the many uncertainties, we consider it to be our duty to provide the
players a reliable source for their planning. To get a complex and total
picture, we deducted our data from both, a large number of global trade
associations and many government statistics. That’s why we can
assure our partners the highest possible accuracy of our market interpretations
and forecast. Especially in today’s awkward and uncertain commercial
environment, the global air transport industry badly needs reliable
and dependable sources to safely navigate through the economic draught
and secure its business.
FT: What
are the big points your FMO highlights?
DS: What we predict
is firstly a paradigm shift on the European inbound and outbound traffic
distribution. High demand sectors, such as the automotive industry,
are changing their business models quite rapidly due to demand reduction
by consumers and the geographical concentration of their suppliers.
Consequently, less automotive parts will be flown through the skies.
Instead, special and niche offerings, such as pharmaceuticals, perishables,
valuables or health care products, will gain ground. The earlier agents
and carriers realize this, the better for them. Our main message is:
less mass tonnage and more special products will be transported by plane.
Secondly, we forecast a slowing down of
cargo shipments between Europe and North America. Especially the U.S.
will no longer be the number one air freight market for European shippers,
forwarders and carriers. Instead China, India and some sub-markets in
Far East are becoming increasingly important. This accounts not only
for imports and exports but also for internal regional traffic flows.
Thirdly, we identified prevailing overcapacity
on major trade lanes to be an extremely annoying issue, mainly because
some of the actors still do not adapt to the situation by grounding
some of their equipment or discontinuing quickly enough their loss making
routes. This clinging to the known and the fear of the unknown keeps
spoiling prices on a number of major trade lanes.
Finally, there are still quite a number
of state-owned carriers that are highly subsidized. Carriers, which
obviously do not need to respond to changing market demand due to their
comfortable financial situation. This deepens the split between the
fast reacting commercial or result-driven players, and others.
FT: What
about the role of major cargo hubs? Do they strengthen their position
or are secondary airports gnawing bigger portions of their biz away?
DS: The
big boys can relax as more and more general cargo tonnage will be passed
through their gates. Today, 32 airports worldwide are handling more
than 50 percent of the global tonnage. This concentration trend will
continue, especially after the crisis ends.
FT:
So what’s the expert’s advice for the smaller airports?
DS: Secondary
airports should seriously reconsider their business strategy and acknowledge
the facts. The smartest and least costly step would be to become junior
or regional partner of some bigger hub. This could lead to a work sharing
model with consolidation and deconsolidation services at their sites,
repacking or break bulking of shipments. Fast and reliable ground feeder
services would round up this form of new partnership between smaller
airports and big hubs. However, if they ignore the global trends by
rather competing instead of collaborating, they will continue to invest
big money and get only little return, I fear.
FT:
What’s the business climate going to be in 2010?
DS: Most data
indicate a slow improvement. This applies for regions such as Africa,
Middle East, Russia and the CIS countries. However, they keep on playing
a niche role compared to the strong basic demands of other places such
as India or China.
FT:
If you were an international cargo carrier or agent, would you spend
the 500 Euros the Freight Market Outlook 2010 does roughly cost?
DS: My clear
answer is ‘yes’ as this product is worth every Euro.
For further information visit: www.aviainform.org
Heiner Siegmund
|
Over
110 airline managers, forwarders, shippers, loss adjusters, salvaging
companies, ground handling service providers, aviation liability lawyers,
etc. involved in various aspects of air cargo claims from 31 different
countries will be meeting in Dallas from the 3rd to the 5th November
2009 to discuss practical solutions for efficient processing and conclusion
of air cargo claims. This conference, the only one of its kind and catering
to a very specialized niche of the air cargo supply chain, assumes additional
importance this year given the current crisis facing the industry. The
workable solutions and the best practices coming out of this conference
can help prevent loss of precious revenue.
The
Indian logistics industry is poised to become a $125 billion industry
by 2010, an increase of around 17 per cent, from the current level,
according to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India
(ASSOCHAM), the country’s apex chamber that covers a membership
of more than 20,0000 companies and professionals. 
