Future
Investment
Landscape Changes
The economic and financial
crisis seems to have altered the global investment landscape considerably.
It is now the developing countries that
are taking the lead in attracting investments as well as investingglobally,
according to the Unctad World Investment Report 2009.
Unctad predicts global inflows to fall from
$1.7 trillion in 2008 to below $1.2 trillion in 2009. Recovery is expected
to be slow in 2010 (to a level up to $1.4 trillion) and gain momentum
in 2011 (approaching $1.8 trillion).
According to Unctad secretary-general Supachai
Panitchpakdi, “The BRIC
countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are the most favored destination
for FDI. Not all trans-national corporations (TNCs) have been affected
by the financial crisis, particularly those involved in food and agriculture.
Others that have not been affected are those that put their targets on
long-term prospects such as the pharma industry.”
The report stresses agricultural production
and development as a means to development and food security for these
countries, and as Mr. Supachai said, “We believe that it is up to
national governments to do their bit to revive their agricultural process
as the World Investment Report 2009 tries to propose.”
The report shows that there was a huge surge
in investments in developing and transition economies, increasing their
share in global FDI flows to 43% in 2008. This was partly due a concurrent
large decline in FDI flows to developed countries (29%).
FDI inflows to South Asia in 2008 amounted
to $51 billion. In 2007, the growth rate in South Asia was 49%. Inflows
to the two largest emerging economies, China and India, continued to increase
in 2008. China and India have been steadily gaining importance as host
economies.
According to Unctad’s World Investment
Prospects Survey 2009-11, both India and China ranked third and first,
respectively, as the most-preferred FDI locations. Their strong performance,
even during the current crisis, has reshaped the landscape of FDI flows
to the region as well as to the world at large. China became the third-largest
FDI recipient country, after the U.S. and France, with India catching
up in 10th position.
In recent years, leading TNCs in many manufacturing
and services industries, ranging from steel and automotives to retail,
have sped up their market entry and expansion in India. FDI flows to India
in 2008 surged to a record $42 billion.
Outward investment in regional outflows from China and India rose from
23% in 2007 to 37% in 2008. India ranked third among all developing and
transition economies and 13th in the world as a source of FDI. In addition
to oil companies, large mining and metal companies from China and India
have become more and more aggressive in acquiring overseas assets.
Unctad states that for many Chinese and
Indian companies, in particular, the desire to acquire undervalued assets
(such as mineral deposits, technologies, brand names and distribution
networks) during the global and financial crisis may boost Asian investments
in developed countries.
There has been an overall trend by Asian
countries to change national policies and legislation to become more favorable
to FDI, leading to the further opening up of markets. Thus, in 2008 and
early 2009, India has either raised or abolished existing FDI ceilings
for certain industries.
Gordon Feller |