Russian
Aircraft Hope To Gain Lift

“Russia’s
growing importance in global air cargo will provide a significant boost
to the development of the country’s cargo aircraft market,”
Denis Ilyin, Senior Vice President for Strategy and Commercial at AirBridge
Cargo Airlines, said addressing the Russia & CIS Aircraft Conference:
"Despite a certain decrease in the
passenger air market, global air cargo is constantly developing and average
annual growth up to 2025 is forecast at between 5.4% and 7.1%.
“Russia can and will benefit strongly
from this.
“Airfreight growth in Russia over
the next 17 years is forecast to be greater than that for North America,
Europe-Middle East, Intra-Europe, Europe-Africa, Europe-North America,
Latin America-Europe and Latin America-North America.
“The development of Russian hubs in
Moscow and Krasnoyarsk will greatly support Russia’s air cargo development,”
he added.
“Moscow is a natural hub connecting
Europe to the Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia while
Krasnoyarsk in the Russian Far East sits in the centre of major tradelanes
that connect the USA, Europe and Canada to China, Japan and Southeast
Asia via cross-polar and trans-Siberian routes.”
According to Ilyin, “Russia’s
role in global air logistics will increase from its present 1.4% share
of the total USD$80 billion global market to 8% in 2015 and 16% in 2030
worth an estimated USD$8.4 billion and USD$25.6 billion respectively.
“Cargo carried on ramp aircraft is
forecast to grow at a faster rate than non-ramp aircraft.
“This will create many new opportunities
for the Russian cargo aircraft market.”
Volga-Dnepr Group, parent of AirBridge Cargo
and Volga-Dnepr Airlines estimates an 8-10% growth in demand for ramp
aircraft up to 2020.
The global fleet of 479 ramp aircraft—
AN-124-100, IL-76, AN-12 and C-130 freighters—currently accounts
for 1.4% of the total $80 billion worldwide market.
According to Ilyin, Russian cargo airlines’
share of both the scheduled and charter market using ramp aircraft, “is
set for further rapid growth.
“The 1.4% share of scheduled cargo
carried by Russian carriers will grow to 10% by 2020.
“Russia’s already dominant position
in the $1 billion ramp aircraft operations market will increase from the
current 74% market share to 90% in 12 years time.
“The upward trend will be met by a
growing fleet of Russian and Western-built freighter aircraft.
“By 2020, development forecasts indicate
that 52 AN-124 freighters will be required to support 39% of the buoyant
Russian market.
“Similarly, the IL-76 fleet will need
to grow from 28 freighters in 2008 to 41 aircraft by 2020 to meet demand.”
“Russia’s
scheduled cargo service market, currently supported by 21 freighters in
the 10-30, 30-100 and 100+ tons categories, will require 76 freighters
by 2020, including 25 Boeing 747s.
" The Russian economy has been growing
steadily in recent years, creating a base for the very challenging and
ambitious goals of the Russian air cargo industry in the next decade.
“In order to turn these plans into
reality, there will be more and more freighters flying to, from and via
Russia, operated by both Russian and foreign airlines," he concluded.
David
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