Vol. 9 No. 60                                                           WE COVER THE WORLD                                                     Monday May 10, 2010

AMR Merger
Non-Starter

     Now that United and Continental are “just merged” we wonder what will happen next?
     Our regular readers will recall that about a month ago in these pages, our resident financial guru Dr. Julius Maldutis correctly predicted that United and Continental were more likely to merge whilst nearly everybody else was reporting the merger likelihood was between United and US Airways.
     Now with reports circulating that American (AMR) and US Airways may merge, Dr. J calls it as he sees it.
     American, which was just awarded rights last Friday to fly JFK New York to Tokyo’s Haneda downtown airport, is often viewed as having the chops to grow into a greater airline as easily as any airline that it might take over.
     Dr. J adds:
     “Given huge loss at AMR I see no merger with anyone!
     “For the record AMR has acquired three airlines and shut them all down!”
     Gazing in the crystal ball, Dr. J predicts:
     “Slow recovery underway in the U.S. “Double dip recession end of 2010 or early 2011.
     “No significant growth in airline capacity, but looking ahead, good recovery in bookings and strong improvement in yields.
     “Despite recent BP spill, a sharp decline in oil prices still possible. Airline stocks will do well, and will peak in June or July to fully reflect 2010 profits.
     “No other mergers in the industry this year.”
     Julius Maldutis Ph.D is President of Aviation Dynamics
Contact: juliusmaldutis@aol.com.

CNS 2010 In Depth

    As the 20th Annual IATA Cargo Network Services (CNS Partnership) continued at the Miami Doral Golf Resort earlier this week, Air Cargo News/Flying Typers sent our contributing editor, Ted Braun, into meetings to get the news.
     Our goal was to generate on-the-minute reports of IATA CNS meetings – a series of word pictures delivered to the air cargo industry at large that was unable to attend IATA CNS. We want to give you a sense of the quality of the CNS presentations along with the blow-by-blow interactions of participants.
     Attendees of the conference ponied up as much as $1300.00 for the privilege of attendance.
     So, dear reader, having put our money where our convictions are and paid the ticket for this pay-per-view event, we hope that you will find the following of some use.
     Here is Ted Braun’s report:

CNS DAY 1

     After the opening formalities, keynote speaker Dr. Andreas Otto, (left) Lufthansa Cargo, got off to an explosive start. The remark that drew everyone’s attention was his view that a joint airline/forwarder formulation of industry concerns in political forums was essential to success and sustainability, and he saw CNS well positioned for such a role.
     He furthermore suggested that the unique CNS model be applied to other countries. Jo Frigger, Emo Trans, courageously stated that IATA de facto suppressed CNS-type development worldwide—and suddenly the elephant in the room was fingered! It couldn’t have come from a more authoritative source.
     CNS President, Michael Vorwerk, responded diplomatically and essentially squashed any such ideas. The scene was set in terms of what IATA will and will not do.
     The Industry Analysis session with Helane Becker (right) of Jesup & Lamont Securities was full of verbal data without a visual reference, which lessened the impact and import. The monotonous delivery prompted one participant to retort that they “could have emailed the report” and “the crowd in the room knows more about this.” You get the picture.
     It only became more awkward when American Airlines was unduly singled out for an alleged “bad history of mergers” and then another foot went into the mouth; oh, but this speaker had so many feet! And soon we were shoulder deep… a little preview by the organizers could have saved everyone some embarrassment.
     The Risk Management: Securing the Supply Chain went smoothly and brought a little flavor to our collective palates on how things look and work in Washington.
     Immediately following lunch, the Air Forwarders Association’s Brandon Fried delivered a lively and well-gauged ‘State of the Industry’ forwarders’ perspective.
     The key points examined the issues of the day, in which forecasting is key, as well as demand minus capacity triggers and the impact of screening on air freight, all of which contribute to rates rising. Brandon stated that profit was a clear issue for forwarders, but apparently not necessarily for airlines.
     Doug Brittin, (left) recently named as general manager cargo at TSA replacing Ed Kelly who died in December 2009 was next, delivering an overview of the August deadline for screening 100% of cargo flown on passenger aircraft and its components – a tally consisting of 186 ICSF (independent cargo screening facilities), 55 shipper screening facilities and 409 IAC (indirect air carriers). The figures did the job of emphasizing that 94 percent of U.S. exports via wide-body aircraft are channeled through 18 major gateway airports, where capacity is reaching its physical limits. This is where delays, backlogs and problems can be anticipated given the piece-level screening requirement. Self-interest has been the driving force for shippers of perishables, pharmaceuticals, museums and funeral homes in terms of undertaking their own screenings.
     The next milestones after August 2010 are U.S. inbound cargo – a staggering 3.1 billion pounds flown annually on passenger aircraft from 97 countries! Government-to-government liaison has been the main vehicle the U.S. employs to push this through worldwide. A question from the floor indicated that forwarders had only found out about this new timeline in late April and inquired whether outreach to major global airports had been contemplated.
     The government works mainly through its agencies and the speaker encouraged the industry to be proactive in communications in this matter. It goes without saying that this is another unfunded mandate.
     The airline panel had a well-qualified and diverse geographic, as well as representation for passenger and freighter aircraft operators. It began promisingly enough with each executive outlining his or her management of the 2009 annus horribilis challenges. It quickly became clear that each airline and market was different, and the moderator started losing the room. The question hovering in the air was whether there was a real lesson for the audience and industry in general in all of this, let alone in the purpose of drilling the panel further, which the panelists valiantly carried on obligingly.
     Common threads revolved around capacity management, matching supply and demand, financial management and the uncertainty of going forward with persistent volatility and unreliable indicators. Concerns were expressed regarding possible reactions by shippers to remodel their global supply chains to fend against capacity and price swings, which were deemed unacceptable.
     All this discussion around pricing had me wondering whether there was an IATA lawyer anywhere nearby that could redirect the conversation.
     In my view, while each panelist demonstrated clear command of the issues, I left feeling uncertain as to the point of analyzing 2009 when, as it was stated, 2010 and 2011 will be different, and while it was interesting, I couldn’t figure out how it contributed to the CNS mission and the paying audience.
     On to day two!  

CNS DAY 2—Part I

     Tuesday morning’s “Time & Temperature Logistics for Healthcare Products” caught my attention as it represented the sole dependable revenue generator in tough times. I quickly found out I had a lot to learn – this session was for the cognoscenti! Loaded with technical abbreviations and pharmaceutical-related techno-speak, it revealed the tremendous growth of this product line and the work of IATA’s Time & Temperature Task Force (TTTF), now a permanent body under its Live Animals and Perishables Board. The resulting regulations are contained in Chapter 17, Air Transport Logistics for Temperature-Sensitive Healthcare Products, which has been developed by a multidisciplinary Pharmaceutical Technical Working Group. The panelists remarked that they had been surprised about how little the airline and pharmaceutical industries knew about each other.
Group members (and now TTTF members) include pharmaceutical industry companies, forwarders, airlines and temperature-controlled container manufacturers. A new 4X4 inch handling label has been developed that would be affixed by the shipper and is intended to signal to handlers the need to maintain such packages at between 15°C and 25°C ambient temperature (this applies to the package itself and not the contents). The use of the label is not mandatory.
     For a task force, it has its own support group consisting of an advisory board and a care team, both staffed by cross industry experts. This line of business has been growing steadily and currently there are 25 or more airlines offering distinct Chapter 17 compliant products and services. This focus and IATA’s responsiveness can only be understood when one looks at the numbers. But, there is one small problem – copies of the presentations were not made available. The presenter of the most compelling data refused flat-out to provide it. Perhaps the presentations will be offered for sale separately!
     This may be a digression, but when, as a member of the media, a company is restricted arbitrarily to a certain number of participants at this CNS conference, and therefore after having paid the full registration fee, one should be afforded the equivalent of the pilots’ MEL (minimum equipment list) for such a commercial event and its sessions. In my view, this package ought to include:
       Copies of the material presented; unless it is communicated upfront, it will not be available
       Opportunity and time for questions and answers
       Some presence and representation of the organizers (CNS/IATA), not the Worldtek proxies
       Structured, consistent, professional session management

     Back to those numbers though. The secretive panelist’s confidential slides did put things into vivid context – I did mention the details weren’t being made public, right?
     Going by my notes, pharmaceutical logistics allegedly represent 3.7% of the global market, or 1 billion dollars projected in 2010. Of that, 19% were temperature sensitive. The significant tidbit was the correlation between product price and temperature sensitivity, with a single unit up to $5,000 to $7,000 apiece; a full ULD would potentially have a value in excess of 30 million dollars.
     It is no surprise that risk management is the name of the game! The order of magnitude can be easily illustrated and quickly understood with statistics indicating 5% of pharmaceutical sales are scrap, of which 30% can be attributed to logistics. But you have to promise not to tell anyone!
     Nina Heinz of LifeConEx highlighted its audit business, which regularly makes site visits to 40 or more airports worldwide. It goes without saying that these products are governed by strict SLA (service level agreement) among the participants, be it airlines, forwarders or 3 and 4PLs. The talk pointed out the wide variety of findings by geography, sophistication and effectiveness, and not necessarily where one would expect it.      One remark stood out for me – to quote: “In-flight cargo hold temperatures are still a big unknown." Again, when dedicated temperature controlled ULDs are utilized, I don’t see the problem; the rest depends on the type of aircraft and age. I also have a suggestion – contact IATA Airline & Aircraft Operations, Engineering & Maintenance. Somebody there surely can provide a definitive answer… and yes, I know that is a different area of activity.
     As an aside – the LifeConEx home page states – quote: “…supply chain neutral (airlines, forwarders, truckers, packaging, technology, etc.).” The operative word is “neutral.”
     If you are not convinced, look up ‘LifeConEX.’ Shareholders are listed as 50% Lufthansa Cargo and 50% DHL Global Forwarding. The board of directors boasts four executives, including Dr. Andreas Otto, a member of the executive board of Lufthansa Cargo and Klaus Holler, Vice President Lufthansa Cargo, Americas. Nothing untoward, just why call it ‘neutral’?
     One suggestion by the panel was for IATA to help coordinate onsite airport audits by developing a standardized audit form, something being worked on by the UK-based ‘Pharma360°’ with potential inclusion in Chapter 17. But there was no one from IATA there, as a result there was no one who might have run it up the flagpole, so at CNS 2011 there could be something in play, if a way is found to generate some revenue from it.
     Air Canada’s panelist elaborated on the evolution and development of AC Cool, a good example of what can be done when there is focus and resources devoted to an issue. And the session ran out of time before any Q&A could take place. The panel stayed on a few minutes for one-on-one. All in all a very insightful, workman-like track about a topic which is surely gaining prominence, not in the least because of the dollar amounts involved on all sides.
     Kevin O’Donnell, Moderator suggested Air Cargo News Flying Typers ought to cover the next TTTF meeting; and we would, as long as IATA makes it possible for media to attend without charging, yet again, a fee for making industry work public. We have accepted the invitation in principle and wait to hear from Des Vertannes!

CNS Day 2 – Part II

     If you are one of the long time loyal readers of Air Cargo News Flying Typers, and we know you are, you might wonder what got us into covering sessions at an industry event. Well, Geoffrey remembered that for years we had been bitching about the rather consistently poor quality of the meetings and sessions at CNS, ACA, TIACA, etc. In the past the extent of the “session work” was attendance at a couple of meetings, interviewing attendees, and getting some feedback. This year we wanted to get the real story! And Air Cargo News/Flying Typers was made to pay full registration fees for the privilege.
     As a relatively new presence at CNS, the “Commodity or Integral Part of the Value Chain” track with emphasis on ground handling seemed worth exploring. Well-known individuals as panelists promised an interesting session.
     Halfway through it, I was transported back in time 15 years or so, when forwarders and airlines at CNS were standing up and angrily throwing mutual accusations, stabbing the air with a pointing finger to demonstrate their woes to the other side. Except this time, it’s a broken dialogue conducted by the ground handlers versus the world! Not that there aren’t enough real challenges and looming deadlines around the corner to make even the strongest knees shake under the table.
     As the global trend is to refocus on its core business, over the years airlines have outsourced many activities, from maintenance to sales and ground handling. At the beginning of time – circa 1970 – the foundation for ‘handling’ was one airline handling another airline’s operation, so it’s no surprise that the foundation of such agreements reflect that particular aspect. Now those services are provided by ground handling companies, and, although touched up, the agreements are considered archaic. Much time, effort and cost goes into SLA (service level agreement), which is needed to govern the complex interdependencies among shippers, freight forwarders, airlines, and ground handlers.
     With airline self-handling pretty much a thing of the past and ground handling evolving into a global business, a lot has been happening, much of it behind the scenes. What partially sharpened the minds has been the security burdens brought to bear in the form of cargo screening on passenger aircraft. The background of it is well known – unfunded laws enforced by the government leave the supply chain participants with few uncomfortable choices, which cost many millions of dollars in the middle of a global economic crisis of unprecedented proportions.
     With an excellent moderator, this panel was a subdued and clearly unhappy crowd, with doom and gloom hanging heavily in the air with everyone anticipating August 1 as if it were Armageddon. John Batten (left) of Swissport was the sole standout, consistently putting a positive spin on his company’s efforts to do the best possible job to provide good service and add value wherever and whenever possible.
     Perhaps relatively few insiders still marvel, as I frequently do, at the unheralded triumph of getting a flight in the air. It takes so much to make this happen, despite all odds, with little fanfare and unglamorous hard work, under relentless pressure in the bowels of airport terminals and on icy ramps! Yet, it’s a business and the vendors get paid for it. A phrase during the session stuck in my mind–“the ephemeral notion of quality” which brings you right back to the ground and what this is about.
     The panelists and the moderator went over all the pain and suffering and most of the issues and concerns faced by the ground handlers and their airline customers, with the recurring theme being revenue and costs. Clearly, the economic downturn put even more severe strains on the parties, with previously essential tenets such as certification (ISO for example) no longer being required; in other words, find a way to provide the service for as little as possible. As a business, ground handlers invested in standards and quality, which matter very little when airlines, forwarders and their respective shippers can’t or won’t pay for it. Therefore, ground handling as a commodity is the sin qua non of “show me some love” in the big scheme of partnership, in this case one which has taking some big hits over the last 3 years.

     Against the backdrop of a 3-year term for a ground handling agreement and 60 days out clause, the ground handlers are feeling squeezed having invested in equipment, including cargo screening, which results in disadvantageous ROI. SLA-based or add-on bonus-malus clauses (a negative bonus for poor performance) are generally resented and do not seem to contribute to cooperative solutions, but what business is without a horde of lawyers behind it?
     Ground handling has made its way into Cargo 2000, albeit without board representation. Similar to the other session I attended, there was no CNS or IATA representative present, so this is in the ‘wish list’ category. More complaints were expressed regarding cargo screening and TSA’s exclusion of ground handlers from discussions and consideration in the procedure development process, given the impact on their role and activities. To be fair, it’s important to remember that ultimately it is always the airlines whose feet are held to the fire by the regulators and they chose to divest themselves of control in this critical area, which, admittedly, has long been the weakest link in the chain and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.
     Equitable partnerships are a good thing in and by themselves. In the airline cargo business this implies authority and responsibility commensurate with each partner’s investment. This is an uncomfortable idea, because airlines invest by far more in this capital-intensive business with as example just the cost of aircraft alone, not to mention fuel. Freight forwarders pride themselves at bringing the business. While that may be very true, their capital exposure pales in comparison. Despite this, they have been very vocal in demanding their share and making profits. And now the ground handlers, somewhere in between in terms of investment in equipment and infrastructure and being the last line of defense in the physical cargo process, also need to turn a profit. Squeezing one another is a recipe for disaster and the signs of positive change just aren’t there.
     The moderator of this session wrapped up, promising to take some action points to follow up with CNS, i.e. IATA. We will continue to watch carefully and attentively and ask again and again for substantive proof that IATA can deliver.
Ted Braun/Flossie

 

CNS
On Video


Generations—Jenni Frigger Latham & Jo Frigger
The Emo-Trans Team

     “Who knows where the road will lead us,” may occur to all of us at one time or another but for EMO Trans CEO Jo Frigger who stood up and was heard as CNS Partnership began, and daughter Jenni Frigger-Latham who recently moved up from Philadelphia to EMO headquarters in Freeport, New York, the future looks bright indeed.
     EMO for the record has continued to grow adding services in India and Australia and elsewhere, despite the global turndown, now finally abating.
     “The CNS Partnership is still the best place to meet with our colleagues and get on the same page as we move ahead in 2010,” Jenni said.
     “CNS is just the right combination of business and social opportunity that builds lasting relationships,” Jo Frigger said.

For me, it was the first time I have attended this show, too. So I really didn’t know what to expect. Since Sterling belongs to the exhibitors showcasing their services and products, I didn’t have much chance to attend the conferences and panels. Instead, I met many customers, especially from DHL, which we at Sterling collaborate quite intensively with. With them and some other clients we discussed different or additional types of services that we could provide for them. I therefore would say that our participation has paid off.

Veronica Chao,
Sales Supervisor
Sterling Transportation, Inc.,

(From left)—The boys from US Airways Cargo— Jesse Hupko, regional sales manager; Jimmy Speas, director cargo sales; and David Robles, account sales manager, while deep in the wild blue, still have eyes on the prize and are once again on the path to profits through consolidation of product offerings and new destinations.
     US Airways adding A330-200 to the fleet, startup of new service to Tel Aviv in July and has streamlined cargo product offering from five to three.
     “We are prioritizing our cargo goals in order of yield, revenue and volume.
     “Early 2010 uptick in cargo business has us “conservatively optimistic,” said Jimmy Speas.


Delivering a Greener World

      Shelley Goshorn, Business Development Manager at Airdex International and fellow Buckeye was good enough to explain the merits of the AIRpallet system, a 7lb. shipping pallet capable of carrying up to 3,500lbs that is recyclable, repairable sanitary, freezer safe, and totally green.


Klaus Jaeger,
Senior VP Air Freight USA, Panalpina

     To my understanding CNS is one of the most important air freight conferences held on this globe. It’s not comparable with IATA’s yearly run Cargo Symposium because in contrast to the IATA gatherings where airlines are very dominant, at CNS lots of forwarders participate.      This industrial mix makes the CNS Partnership Conference highly attractive.
     We’ve held 18 meetings with our major capacity providers like American and United Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Lufthansa Cargo, LAN and British Airways Cargo. So besides new information on industrial matters like security, e-freight or Cargo 2000, the Miami-held conference provided an excellent platform for bilateral talks and networking.
     Furthermore, I would like to emphasize that I very much support the idea Dr. Andreas Otto of LH Cargo brought to the table in his keynote remarks with the suggestion to internationalize CNS for offering similar services for cargo airlines, forwarders, ground handlers and sales agents mainly in Europe. The cargo industry is in desperate need of a common voice in Europe.

     

     Irvin Varkonyi, former KLM and Martinair Cargo, says he is now “a recovering air cargo executive” as he advances the online education process at American Public University (APU), which secures degrees for a variety of careers. www.studyapu.com

      “What’s to recover from?” wonders Heide Enfield, Head of Global Market Development for Lufthansa Cargo Charter. “Good sessions, lots of networking and big ideas are still driving this industry,” she insists.



The Indispensable Man?


      Air cargo great Klaus Holler thought the next step after air cargo was a well-planned hereafter, but soon discovered that his journey was put on hold as Lufthansa Cargo soars and some big shoes to fill are still looking for the right fit.
     No matter. Klaus promises: “I’ll fly away when things line up.”

It’s the first time that I have attended a CNS conference. My impression is that it’s a gathering of interesting, knowledgeable, forward-driving people that came together in Miami to exchange their views. If it was worth the money participating, then we need some time to reflect because we’ll see if the different connections we made will pan out in the days to come. Besides the information, face-to-face talks, etcetera, the meeting offered me the opportunity to play some golf during my stay in Doral, which I enjoyed very much.

Michael Belton,
Manager, Charter Sales & Operations,
National Airlines, Ypsilanti, MI

     Gregg Borgeson of Ex Works was once employed at a family-owned forwarding company called Hellman.
     But Gregg did not see himself breaking the glass ceiling there.
     So Gregg went out and started a dot.com company, which promptly failed.
     Gregg then started Ex Works, Inc. partnering with a software company called IES.
     Today he is Boston-based, serving DHL and Panalpina and some small and medium forwarders.
     Gregg reports 2,000 truckers in his network and also that Ex Works is at work for Vorwerk accrediting truckers for CNS.
     What Ex Works does is organize information that flows between freight forwarders and the trucking companies.
     Ex Work also provides both POD and audited invoices to freight forwarders electronically.
     All of this delivers an easy-to-use repository for insurance certificates, driver TSA information, fleet makeup, hours of operation, management contacts and of course, rates.
     “This way truckers registered with me do not need to provide insurance and driver information to each and every one of their forwarder clients.
     “Forwarders get the information they need in a single location,” Gregg Borgeson said.
     He says he loves what he is doing, happy in his second marriage and in his second life as an Ex Works between truckers and forwarders.
     “Everything is twice as nice,” he smiles.

 


     The CNS conferences are the best format the air freight industry offers for networking, discussing current topics and for getting a clearer outlook for our biz in the months to come.
      For us at Swiss WorldCargo it’s a must attend event which practically implies that we’ll show up for sure at next year’s meeting in Phoenix, Arizona in May 2011.


     Cargo Machine is the name of the company and President & CEO, Howard Chaloner, (left) is quick to describe the man newly appointed to Cargo Matrix, Vince Ryan (r), in the same terms on Tuesday at CNS.
     Ryan says Cargo Matrix, located in Valley Stream, New York, near JFK, is not only full of smart shipping solutions but also offers 100% cargo screening compliance made easy.
www.cargomatrix.com

 

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